Yellen sends the dollar tumbling down

What had markets expected? In any case, Yellen did not provide any surprises.

more coming

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AUD/NZD: 2 Bullish Triggers Building Up; Levels & Targets – NAB

NAB FX Technical Strategy Research notes that AUD/NZD is in the process of building a base of 2 bullish triggers which will likely confirm a sustainable medium-term up-trend.

1- “A month end close above 1.0806 is the first of these triggers and will confirm that the previous high at 1.1020 should come under pressure.

2- A weekly close above 1.1020 will confirm a sustainable MT (potentially LT) uptrend bias and initially target a retest of 2015 highs above 1.14,” NAB argues.

Source: NAB Research

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from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/r_Wh-NUcAfo/audnzd-2-bullish-triggers-building-levels-targets-nab

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GBP/JPY: Targeting 38.2% Fibo En-route To 50% Fibo: Levels & Targets – Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that GBP/JPY’s rejection off its downtrend from December 2016 has seen a sharp fall to complete a small top below 144.03, followed by a breach of both the uptrend from October 2016 and its 200-day average.

“This should see the risk stay bearish, and we target the June low and 38.2% retracement of the October/December 2016 rally at 139.18/138.67.

We would allow for a temporary hold here, but favor its removal in due course to mark a larger top to signal the start of a more significant bear trend for the 50% retracement and low of the year at 136.31/135.13.

A break below here in due course can see a more sustained sell-off to the 61.8% retracement at 133.43. Resistance is initially seen at the 200-day average at 142.33, then 143.20, which we would like to see cap,” CS projects.

Source: Credit Suisse Global Fixed Income Research

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GBP: Performance In Check Vs USD Into Year-End; Where To Target? – CIBC

CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that going into a new round of Brexit negotiations, markets seem to have taken little comfort with the UK government’s position paper that proposed a temporary customs agreement with the EU.

“The paper finally made it clear as to how the May government would like to proceed over the next few years and was a necessity towards starting the first phase of negotiations with the EU. However, there are questions surrounding the ability of the UK to negotiate trade deals with other countries whilst in the temporary customs agreement and also on the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland,” CIBC notes. 

On the monetary policy front, CIBC notes that the BoE indicated that markets may be underpricing the risk of rate hikes.

“But even despite an expected bout of currency-related inflation set for the coming months, we’ll need to see more evidence of improvements in other indicators like real incomes before that risk comes into sharper relief.

As a result, Brexit uncertainty along with the coming squeeze in household incomes will keep GBP performance in check versus the greenback for the rest of 2017,“ CIBC argues.

In line with this view, CIBC expects GBP/USD to remain around current levels targeting a flat profile for the cross around 1.30 by end of Q3, and into year-end.

Source: CIBC Economics – CIBC Capital Markets

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German IFO Business Climate beats with 115.9

Germany’s No. 1 Think-Tank, IFO, was expected to report a small drop in business confidence, albeit from high levels. Earlier this week, ZEW disappointed.

EUR/USD was leaning lower, trading around 1.1780, yet well within the range.

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from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/t1MumKbGj3c/

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GBP/JPY: Targeting 38.2% Fibo En-route To 50% Fibo: Levels & Targets – Credit Suisse

Pound/yen continues producing lots of pips for traders. What’s next for the “dragon”? Here is the technical view from Credit Suisse.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that GBP/JPY’s rejection of its downtrend from December 2016 has seen a sharp fall to complete a small top below 144.03, followed by a breach of both the uptrend from October 2016 and its 200-day average.

“This should see the risk stay bearish, and we target the June low and 38.2% retracement of the October/December 2016 rally at 139.18/138.67.

We would allow for a temporary hold here, but favor its removal in due course to mark a larger top to signal the start of a more significant bear trend for the 50% retracement and low of the year at 136.31/135.13.

A break below here in due course can see a more sustained sell-off to the 61.8% retracement at 133.43. Resistance is initially seen at the 200-day average at 142.33, then 143.20, which we would like to see the cap,” CS projects.

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EUR/USD: Towards 1.15 Or 1.20 On BBDXY Make Or Break At 1150 – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Technical Strategy Research notes that the decline in the USD represented by the Bloomberg US dollar index ‘BBDXY’ is digesting oversold conditions in a supportive technical area and previously, this area was where markets bought USD.

As long as the BBDXY remains above support at 1150, the potential for a bounce, maybe even a rally to the upper 1100strend line break area, remains.

>> This favors: EUR/USD correcting the 5 wave rally from the December low to at least the 1.15-1.1440 area, 1.1350 and possibly 1.1225.

However, we think if the BBDXY marks a weekly close below 1150it would continue to retrace the 2014-2017 uptrend. Fibonacci shows it could fall to 1108.

This would favor >> EUR/USD continuing its rally to the market quoted 1.20 area. Above that is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2172,” BofAML argues. 

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Research

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from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/DBCwUh7-LBU/eurusd-towards-115-or-120-bbdxy-make-or-break-1150-bofaml

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EUR, USD: Into Jackson Hole; GBP: Into New Round Of Brexit Negotiations – Citi

Citi Research argues that ECB Governor Draghi may not have any significant announcement in Jackson Hole, which may restrain EUR.

“In our view, if Fed Chair Yellen mentions in Jackson Hole that easing financial conditions may further support rate hikes, which may underpin USD,” Citi adds.

 On the GBP front, Citi notes that a new round of Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU will begin on Aug 28, covering Brexit bill, citizens’ rights and the Northern Irish border issue.

“Thus, we expect Brexit uncertainty likely cap upside around 1.32 in GBP/USD,” Citi argues.

Source: Citi Research

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from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/3Xamd0aYeW0/eur-usd-jackson-hole-gbp-new-round-brexit-negotiations-citi

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EUR/USD: Exploring Top-End Of Range; USD/JPY: Exploring Bottom-End Of Range – SocGen

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research notes that Jackson Hole the main diary item for the rest of the week for the FX markets.

“It is though, all pretty conventionally bad for the dollar to have political concerns dragging yields down. Can Janet Yellen turn the tide?

Until she does, we explore the low end of the USD/JPY range. and the upper end of the EUR/USD range. And the very tippy top of the EUR/GBP range,” SocGen adds.

Strategy-wise, SocGen still promotes a positive view on AUD/JPY but notes that for that view to remains in play, the bottom of the USD/JPY rang needs to hold too.

Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

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from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/oJkN1Oo2Bog/eurusd-exploring-top-end-range-usdjpy-exploring-bottom-end-range-socgen

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