Article 50 of the European Treaty triggers fear among British policymakers. It seems that nobody wants to touch it with a barge pole. Will the Bregret turn into a Bremain instead of Brexit?
David Cameron quickly quit on Friday and also refrained from committing to pulling the trigger on the Brexit. He said it will up to the next government to do so. Boris Johnson, the lead Leave candidate, did not seem joyful in his public appearance. His face seemed gloomy like Cameron’s and not happy like Farage’s.
So, the Tory party is in no rush to do so and neither are Labour. They are torn in their own civil war. The smaller LibDems are united against Brexit.
Another layer of complication comes from legal opinion on who should actually trigger this exit move. According to some, parliament has the power to make the move, not the government. And in the parliament, the pro-Remain camp has an overwhelming majority: most Labour members, all LibDems and most Tories are against Brexit.
So, in case it reaches parliament, will MPs vote according to the will of the people and according to the referendum for something they are clearly against?
Or will they vote according to their conscience, “doing the right thing for the country” but betraying voters and undermining democracy?
If it reaches parliament, uncertainty will further rise.
And the EU is not helping either: Germany made it clear there will be no informal negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. France urges Britain to end uncertainty. And now there are reports that the EU “would welcome Scotland as the 28th member”. Currently there are 28 members, so Scotland would basically replace the UK according to their count. But will Catalonia be the 29th?
There are many open questions. Markets are currently pricing in a Brexit, with the pound plunging to new lows, assuming the deal is done.
However, if there are more voices suggesting that Bremain is still possible despite the clear result, we may see a huge bounce in the pound.
What do you think?
from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/nYwrfarU0ws/
from Online Forex Trading Resource
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