Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the victory of Emmanuel Macron carries the risk of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ for EUR/USD.
Such a risk, according to Barclays, implies a down-move in EUR/USD, given the current long EUR pre-positioning and given that the EUR political-risk premium was reduced significantly by the “benign” first round outcome.
In line with this view, Barclays expects EUR/USD to depreciate mildly over the remainder of this year, as monetary policy divergence and some residual political-risk premia weigh on the common currency.
Barclays targets EUR/USD at 1.09 by the end of Q2, and at 1.06 by the end Q3.
EUR/USD is trading circa 1.0970 as of writing.
Source: Barclays Research
The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.
from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here