TD FX Strategy Research notes that as Australia released its budget today, the longer-term impact on AUD is whether the budget leads to shift in the rating agencies.
In the near-term, TD notes that the while the weakness is AUD is in part driven by the budget, there are also other factors are at play.
“For one thing overnight data came in weaker data than expected. Retail sales slipped on both the month and quarter, reflecting a pullback in department store sales. This setup argues that growth is off to a sluggish start in Q1. For another, the greenback is starting to creep higher, which is weighing on the G10 complex more broadly,” TD notes.
Strategy-wise, TD looks to fade AUD/USD positioning related bounces with resistance near 0.7388.
AUD/USD is trading circa 0.7338 as of writing.
Source: TD Securities Research
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