BTMU FX Strategy Research continues to hold a more upbeat view for the EUR through the remainder of the year but after the notable move higher in EUR/USD over the last two months, BTMU projections are beginning to look a little conservative.
“While we are set to nudge our EUR levels a little higher, we are cautious at current levels and see limited scope for much further upside momentum from here over the coming months.
…But the caution of the ECB and the fact that EUR/USD upside might be complete for now doesn’t imply that EUR/USD is about to lurch back to the lows of around 1.0600 before this move higher began,” BTMU argues.
In line with this view, BTMU expects ECB caution to be very evident next week when the communication on forward guidance is expected to be altered.
“That appears well priced into the market at this stage and we would therefore be surprised to see much further upside momentum for the euro over the short-term,” BTMU adds.
EUR/USD is trading circa 1.1235 as of writing.
Source: BTMU Research
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