EUR: Focus Shifts To French Parliamentary Elections Next Week; What's The Trade? – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research discusses its trading strategy for the EUR noticing that this week’s ECB meeting was a non-event for the EUR and focus now shifts to the French Parliamentary elections next week.

“Investors went into the meeting with a relatively light position in our view, looking for an opportunity to buy any EUR dip. We have to wait for this fall to get the details on the future of QE after this year. 

Polls suggest an easy win with absolute majority for President Macron in the Parliamentary elections in France next weekSuch a victory would give more political capital to Macron, helping him to reform France and argue for broader Eurozone reforms post-QE with the winner of the German elections this fall. On balance, positive for the EUR,”: BofAML argues. 

All in all, BofAML expects a mixed outlook for EUR/USD, but recommends long EUR/GBP and is looking for the right opportunity to go long EUR/JPY.

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Research

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