US core CPI falls to 1.7% – USD follows

The US reports inflation and retail sales numbers on the day the Fed makes its all-important decision. Core CPI was expected to rise at 1.9% y/y, the same as in April (before revisions). Retail sales carried expectations for +0.1% after 0.4% last month.

The US dollar was stable ahead of the publication, basically awaiting the Fed.

Inflation and retail sales May 2017

  • CPI m/m: previous +0.2%, expected 0%, actual:
  • Core CPI m/m:prev. +0.1%, exp. +0.2%, actual:
  • Core CPI y/y: prev. 1.9%, exp. 1.9%, actual:
  • CPI y/y: prev. 2%, exp. 2.2%, actual:
  • Retail sales: prev. 0.4%, exp. +0.1%, actual:
  • Core sales: prev. +0.3%, exp. +0.2%, actual:
  • Retail control group: prev. +0.2%, exp. +0.3%, actual:

Awaiting the Fed

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the interest rate once again despite an evident slowdown. This is the message they have sent and the FOMC does not like to rock the boat too much.

The big question is: what’s next? The path of interest rates, as well as the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, make a difference.


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