CAD: Bringing Forward Our BoC Hike Call To Q4; Where To Target? – CIBC

The hawkish tone from Wilkins[1] and then from Poloz pushed the Canadian dollar higher. Will this hawkishness translate into a hike?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that CAD was lent support last week from a sudden change in tune by the Bank of Canada, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and then Governor Poloz hinted that interest rates would be rising soon.

“As a result, we’ve brought forward our forecast for the BoC’s first hike to Q4 of this year. However, the biggest impact on the CAD may have already been seen, as a hike in rates in Canada is now more fully priced into markets than a further move by the Fed,” CIBC argues.

As such, CIBC only sees modes CAD appreciation towards 1.31 by year end.

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