EUR/USD: Downward momentum not strong but room for further weakness towards 1.1105/10.

EUR hit a low of 1.1117, holding well above the major support indicated at 1.1105/10 yesterday. While downward momentum is not that strong, there is ample room for further weakness towards 1.1105/10. A break below this level would shift the focus to 1.1070 but based on the current momentum, this level is unlikely to come into the picture for now. Resistance is at 1.1155 followed by 1.1175 which is acting as a very strong level now. 

GBP/USD: Further weakness is expected but likely limited to 1.2580.

The anticipated GBP weakness exceeded our expectation by easily taking out several strong support levels to hit an overnight low of 1.2603. With no sign of stabilization just yet, further down-move would not be surprising even though any weakness is expected to be at a slower pace and likely limited to a test of the next support at 1.2580 (next support below this level is at 1.2515). On the upside, resistance is at 1.2665 but only a move back above 1.2695 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized. 

AUD/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 0.7530/0.7630 range.

AUD failed to move above the major 0.7635 resistance once again (high of 0.7625). The subsequent weak closing in NY is enough to indicate that the bullish phase that started 2 weeks ago has ended . From here, the outlook has shifted to neutral and AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.7525/0.7630 range. That said, the immediate bias is on the downside and the odds for a move to 0.7525 first is markedly higher than for a move to 0.7630.   

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 16 Jun 17, 0.7205): In a 0.7170/0.7275 range. [No change in view, see update from yesterday below] 

The quick rise to a high of 0.7298 and the equally rapid decline was unexpected. That said, the neutral phase that started last Friday, 16 Jun is still intact even though NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.7150/0.7275 range instead of extending higher towards the recent higher at 0.7320 as expected previously.

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 20 Jun 17, 111.65): Anticipating a break of 112.10 for a move to 112.80.

We just shifted to a bullish stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. Overbought short-term conditions could lead to a few days of consolidation first but as long as 110.85 is intact, we continue to anticipate a break above 112.10 for a move towards 112.80.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research

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