EUR/USD: Bullish But Some Positives In The Price: Where To Target? – Credit Agricole

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains its bullish EUR-outlook and revises its near-term forecasts slightly to the upside.

However, CACIB sees limited upside beyond recent highs in EUR/USD this year, arguing that that some positives are already in the EUR price while some downside risks like the Italian election or potential delay of the ECB QE-taper announcement loom on the horizon. 

On the FX drivers front, CACIB expects the current mix of political and fundamental drivers to remain in place in H217.

“We expect more EUR resilience on the back of improving Eurozone data and contained political risks ahead of the September general elections in Germany. At the same time, persistent political uncertainty in the US could lead to undue delays of President Trump’s fiscal stimulus programme. While we expect US data to improve from here, the demand for USD may be constrained by fears about the persistent political deadlock in DC,” CACIB argues.

In line with this view, CACIB now targets EUR/USD at 1.11 by the end of September and 1.12 by the 2017. Longer-term, CACIB target EUR/USD at 1.18 next year

EUR/USD is trading circa 1.1140 as of writing. 

Source: Credit Agricole CIB Research

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