Citi Research notes that since 2011, Citi US economic surprise index rebounded around the middle of every year, showing worse than expected US economic data may be reduced gradually in the 2H.
“ In 2011-2016, since US economic performance of the first two quarters was dragged down by extreme bad weather, economic forecasts became pessimistic. However, as the bad weather passed, better than expected data increased and the US economic surprise index rebounded in the 2H,” Citi adds.
On the back of that seasonal factor, Citi sees the the USD consolidating some of its recent losses in the near-term.
Source: Citi Research
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