AUD: RBA On Hold & Neutral Next Week But Little Risk Of A Hawkish Surprise – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research expects no big changes from the RBA July meeting next week but sees little risk of a near term hawkish surprise.

“This is likely to be another placeholder meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia and policy is set to remain neutral with the cash rate remaining at 1.5%.

There looks to be little risk that the RBA will follow other central banks and surprise the market with a hawkish signal. The RBA has made it clear it wants to see labor market progress become more broad-based across the states and see average hours worked recover.

The Bank will likely remain in assessment mode to see how the broad range of macro prudential and fiscal measures to address housing sector imbalances are playing out. This is likely to remain the case for a few months yet,” BofAML argues. 

On the AUD front, BofAML maintains its view that AUD/USD will eventually revert towards the lower end of its trading range of the past year but argues that we need clearer evidence of a slowdown in external demand before this becomes a tradable opportunity.

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Research

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