Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
CIBC Research comments on today’s US jobs report for the month of June:
“US payrolls showed a significant rebound in employment, but still little progress in terms of wage inflation. The 222K gain in payrolls compared to a consensus forecast of 178K and was accompanied by a cumulative upward revision of 47K to the prior two months. While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, that was due to a rise in labour force participation.
However, even with the return to strong employment gains following a few disappointments, wages inflation remains fairly muted. Average earnings rose 0.2% on the month (consensus 0.3%) and a downward revision to the prior figure meant that the year-over-year rate of inflation, at 2.5%, was also a little below expectations.
So there’s something in this report for hawks and doves alike on the FOMC, and as such it shouldn’t change expectations that the Fed will take a pause from rate hikes in September to start the balance sheet unwind, before hiking again later in the year,” CIBC argues.
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