EUR/USD Forecast July 17-21 2017

EUR/USD[1] took another step forward, but could not hold onto the highs. What’s next? The big event on the agenda is undoubtedly the ECB meeting.  Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB continues sending mixed messages about its next moves. It seems that they will announce QE tapering in September, but would like to curb the market’s enthusiasm in order to keep the euro and bond yields low. Most data points look good, with industrial output rising 1.3%. In the US, the latest political scandal involving the son of the president hurt the dollar[2], as well as Yellen’s bit of concern[3] about inflation.


EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Final CPI: Tuesday, 9:00. According to the initial figures, the consumer price index rose by 1.3% y/y in June and core CPI advanced by 1.1%[4]. Both figures were better than expected and both will likely be confirmed in the final read, even though Spain’s CPI was upgraded in its final read.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. ZEW publishes its business survey early in the month. In June, the headline figure stood at 18.6, somewhat below expectations. The all-European figure printed 37.7 points.
  3. German PPI: Thursday, 6:00. Producer prices are in the pipeline to the consumer. In the eurozone’s largest economy, PPI dropped by 0.2%. A small bounce is on the cards.
  4. Current Account: Thursday, 8:00. Similar to the narrower trade balance, German exports drive the surplus. The figure stood at 22.2 billion in April and the number for April is due now.
  5. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. In its last rate decision in June, the ECB described risks as balanced[5] instead of as tilted to the downside. In addition, they no longer mentioned the option to lower interest rates in their forward guidance. However, there were no clear hints about tapering, they downgraded inflation forecasts and in addition, ECB President Mario Draghi expressed frustration about core inflation[6]. Since then, that core inflation number ticked up and Draghi made his Sintra speech[7]. There, Draghi talked about a shift from deflation to reflation and mentioned a gradual removal of the stimulus. This time, no new forecasts are on the cards but reporters and markets would like to know if the ECB will announce the beginning of the end of its bond-buying scheme, currently set to expire by year-end. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
  6. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The official consumer confidence measure by Eurostat advanced more than expected and hit -1 in June. While still reflecting pessimism, it is on the verge of turning positive. Will it happen now?

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar started the week around the 1.1390 level (mentioned last week[8]) before making a move to the upside. A break above 1.1445 was short-lived and can be seen as a false break.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1620 was a swing high in May 2016. It is followed by the very round number of 1.15.

1.1445 is the June 2017 peak and immediate resistance. 1.1390 is the post-breakout low and works as support.

1.13 is the top line seen in November before the collapse. 1.1230 capped the pair in June.

1.1160 was a low point in May, where the pair retreated to after hitting new highs. The round number of 1.11 was a swing low in late May.

1.1025 was the initial top after the pair breached 1.10 and now works as support. 1.0950 is close by, and the most recent 2017 high.

The swing high of 1.0870 is the swing high in December and remains fierce resistance. 1.0820 was the post-French elections low.

I remain bullish EUR/USD

While Draghi may try to downplay the economic recovery, the euro-zone continues outshining the US on the economic and political fronts. In addition, there are less doubts about the ECB’s tapering and more doubts about the next US rate hike given the softer US inflation.

Our latest podcast is titled Where are the wage hikes?[9]

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