ANZ FX Strategy Research argues that much of the good news that has propelled the AUD through the last month–looks well priced into the currency.
“With the USD back to its fair value levels, risk appetite looking stretched and given the current elevated level of the Australian surprise index, these sources are unlikely to provide further impetus to the AUD and, if anything, we see downside risks for the currency in the near term,” ANZ argues.
“Over the rest of the quarter though, things look different. The weaker US inflation pulse, together with the tentative improvement that we are seeing in the activity data in Australia, means that rate differentials are unlikely to move further in favour of the US for now.
This shift, together with the fact that we expect global growth to re-accelerate in the months to come and that liquidity will remain at elevated levels for now, means that near-term downsides should be used to re-enter long positions. Patience will pay,” ANZ advises.
Source: ANZ, eFXnews™
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