Forex Weekly Outlook – August 14-18 2017

The US dollar has stabilized after staging the comeback. What’s next? The Fed’s meeting minutes, US retail sales and consumer confidence stand out in the US and there are plenty of figures elsewhere. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

Initially, the US dollar enjoyed the momentum from the NFP[1]. This was compounded with the upbeat JOLTs report[2]. However, the poor PPI numbers already hurt the greenback[3]. The crisis around North Korea and the war of words hurt the greenback against the yen and the franc, while it boosted the USD against commodity currencies. Is the crisis overblown?[4] Let’s start:

Updates:

  1. Japanese GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Early in the week, Japan releases its early estimate of GDP growth. In Q1, the economy grew by only 0.3% according to the final read. A slightly stronger figure is expected now.
  2. Chinese industrial output: Monday, 2:00. The world’s No. 2 economy influences all the world. Industrial production beat expectations in June with a y/y growth rate of 7.6%, providing an encouraging sign.
  3. German GDP: Tuesday, 6:00. The largest economy in Europe enjoyed a quarterly growth rate of 0.6%, in line with European growth in that quarter. We already have an initial number for euro-zone GDP in Q2, but it did not take the German economy into account. We will now see how Germany fared.
  4. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Brexit sent the pound lower and in turn, prices are rising and triggered talk of a rate hike by the BOE. However, the recent slide to 2.6% and some doubts from the BOE trigger doubts if we will see a rate hike anytime soon. CPI is key for the next moves of Sterling.
  5. US retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. The US economy leans heavily towards consumption. In June, all measures of retail sales disappointed: headline sales dropped by 0.2% and so did core sales. Will we see a rebound this time? The report for July will also shape GDP growth expectations for Q3.
  6. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are on the rise, reaching an annualized level of 1.28 million in June. Housing starts also look good with 1.22 million. For a meaningful reaction, we would need both measures to go in the same direction.
  7. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. These are the minutes from the July decision. The Fed tried not rocking the boat, avoiding any hints about another rate hike this year and the statement was eventually perceived as dovish. As the meeting was not accompanied by a press conference, the meeting minutes will provide further insights into the Fed’s thinking.
  8. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. After a few superb months, Australia saw a “normal” jobs report with 14K jobs gained. The unemployment stood at 5.6% in June. We now get the figures for July.
  9. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. This early indicator of the manufacturing sector disappointed with a drop to 19.5 points in July. The fresh data for August will be interesting to watch. Jobless claims are released at the same time, but they have been too stable of late.
  10. US consumer confidence: Friday, 14:00. Friday, 14:00. The last word of the week belongs to the preliminary release of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. According to the final figures for July, consumer confidence slipped to 93.4 points, offf the highs. A similar number is on the cards now.

*All times are GMT

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