EUR: High Bar For A Risk Premium Driven EUR Decline; Where To Target? – ING

ING FX Strategy Research notes that the news over the weekend about the Italian government EUR 17bn rescue package to shore up failing Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza should have a very limited negative impact on EUR.

“With investors well aware of this risk, the ECB floating a credible threat to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro and EUR looking meaningfully undervalued, the bar for a risk premium driven EUR decline is set very high at this stage

ING holds a baseline view that Bund yields break higher in 3Q17, carrying EUR/USD to 1.15.

Source: ING Global Markets Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/l4KQc36nvJg/eur-high-bar-risk-premium-driven-eur-decline-where-target-ing

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

EUR/USD: Range-Trading Through Inflation Prints On Friday – Barclays

Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research notes that the June flash euro area inflation (Friday) will allow markets to reassess expectations regarding the ECB, which has so far shown caution and disappointed market expectations for more changes in forward guidance.

“We forecast headline inflation to slow to 1.3% y/y (previous: 1.4% y/y), with downside risks, while core inflation should increase to 1.0% y/y (previous: 0.9% y/y), with upside risks,” Barclays projects. 

On the US data front, Barclays note that PCE (Friday) is the main data release.

“We expect the headline PCE price index to have declined 0.1% m/m but to have risen 1.5% y/y, with the core PCE price index flat on the month and up 1.4% y/y, in line with the consensus,” Barclays adds.

Barclays expect EUR/USD to range-trade in the near-term. 

Source: Barclays Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/y77_765cUUg/eurusd-range-trading-through-inflation-prints-friday-barclays

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

EUR/USD: Holding 1.10 For More Gains; GBP: Mixed Signals – NAB

NAB FX Strategy Research remains comfortable with its view of further EUR/USD gains on the back of the solid and increasingly broad economic recovery in the Euro Zone, with favorable financing conditions from the ECB’s  easy policy suggestive of upside risks for growth relative to consensus expectations.

“It’s fair to say though that much of the above, while  big-picture, is increasingly appreciated by investors.  That needn’t stop the EUR travelling higher but having taken a leap up out of the old 1.05-1.10 range it’s struggling to make the move much above 1.12-1.13.

Speculative positioning is long – but now slipping back and the USD, having dropped below its  Trump 9 November rally start levels (Fed’s broad USD), now sits more comfortably and awaiting data that will either prove the Fed’s inflation and economic growth optimism correct or not,” NAB argues.

On the GBP front, NAB notes that there is a mixed signal for the pound after the recent hawkish tone from the BoE.

“Whatever the case, the fact remains that a rate hike is now a very live topic for debate in a way in which it absolutely was not just a couple of weeks ago. The open door against which GBP bears were pushing now at least has some resistance behind it. 

We’ve said that a probabilistic ‘fan chart’ for GBP  would have very wide bands throughout our forecast horizon and the incoming news from the MPC certainly underlines that point. Structurally we remain negative on a 6-month view but trading this view will not be easy,” NAB adds. 

Source: NAB Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/fod7LohamTI/eurusd-holding-110-more-gains-gbp-mixed-signals-nab

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

Draghi drag? EUR/USD makes a small bow

The economic situation in the euro-zone is improving. While Draghi had to acknowledge this, he sticks to his stance regarding accommodative monetary policy. Draghi spoke at a conference in Portugal and said that interest rates have to be low for growth to recover.

However, EUR/USD does not go too low.

Why? This is not news from Draghi. We already learned that the President of the ECB would prefer not to reveal the next steps of the Bank’s policy until late in the year.

The ECB currently buys 60 billion euros worth of bonds per month. The program runs through the year and the ECB is expected to taper down its monthly buys from 2018. Some of Draghi’s colleagues at the Governing Council have already expressed their wishes to begin some kind of “normalization”.

Nevertheless, Draghi is not convinced by inflation, which remains low, and does not see it as rising in the future.

EUR/USD is stuck in range

EUR/USD slipped from the highs of 1.1220 to 1.1190 but remains entrenched in range. Support awaits at 1.1160 and 1.11. Resistance awaits at 1.1240 and 1.13.

Earlier, EUR/USD advanced on the weak data coming out of the US: Durable goods orders badly disappointed[1].

All in all, EUR/USD is stuck.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[2]

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/F3MFonfDQPI/

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

US durable goods look weak – EUR/USD ticks up in range

Any strength of the US dollar seems to be short-lived. And the common currency is always there to take advantage of this. Even though EUR/USD is unable to break to new highs, it does not fall either.

The most recent downer of the dollar came from an important indicator: durable goods orders. After a week without any key figures, durable orders are already in the first line.

Headline orders dropped by 1.1%, worse than a slide of 0.5% expected. This may have been influenced by some one-off factors. However, core orders also fell short of expectations by rising by a modest 0.1%, under +0.4% predicted.

Orders of durable goods feed into GDP. In this case, these are the figures for May, deep into Q2. For those expecting a recovery in the second quarter, this is yet another reason to frown. Later this week, we will get the final GDP numbers for Q1. In the second release, they were upgraded from 0.7% to 1.2%.

Later this week, we will get the final GDP numbers for Q1. In the second release, they were upgraded from 0.7% to 1.2%. These numbers are annualized, meaning that quarter over quarter, the economy grew by only 0.3%. No change is expected.

More: EUR/USD: In A Range But Still Looking For A Final Dip Over The Summer[1] – Danske

EUR/USD drifting upwards

Euro/dollar took advantage of the figures, topping 1.12. The pair failed to break resistance at 1.13 but also could not drop below 1.11. It is now in the middle of the range.

At current levels, support awaits at 1.1160. The next support line is 1.11. On the way up, resistance is at 1.1240, followed by 1.13, the ultra-strong cap.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[2]

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/HjNWUZk2ebU/

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

USD/JPY – is it on the up and up? 3 opinions

USD/JPY is trading at the 111 handle, in the middle of the 108.10 to 114.30 range. The pair well represents the ebb and flow in the US dollar. What’s next? Here are some opinions?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

BNPP Trade Of The Week: Buy USD/JPY

Currency investors should consider buying USD/JPY to position for a tactical USD rebound this week , advises BNP Paribas Research in its weekly FX pick.

“We think the USD could rebound this week with several speeches from Fed officials including Fed chair Yellen on 27 June as well as Williams, Harker, Kashkari and Bullard. We expect the Fed to announce the start of its balance sheet reduction program in July, so Fed speakers could start signalling this shift in the near term.

Markets could quickly price in more tightening as market expectations for Fed tightening remain very subdued, with only one further 25bp rate hike priced by the end of 2018. US 10y nominal rates are only moderately above their lows ahead of the June FOMC meeting,” BNPP argues.

USD/JPY is trading circa 111.40 as of writing.

For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus[1]

By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.

USD/JPY: Attempting Double Bottom On Weekly Charts: Levels & Targets – Citi

CitiFX Technical Strategy Research notes that USD/JPY posted a bullish outside week last week indicating higher levels ahead.

The setup forming looks to be a double bottom which has previously given signs of a decent rally – in both early 2012 and again last year.

The key level to watch is 114.37. A weekly close above there would confirm the setup and indicate a rally to almost 120,” Citi adds.

USD/JPY is trading circa 111.25 as of writing.

USD: Will The USD Be Vulnerable Another ‘Lowflation’ Week? – Nordea

Nordea FX Strategy Research notes that this week’s PCE-price data (Thu) is one chance for the market to reassess the Fed outlook.

In that regard, Nordea thinks that this week’s PCE deflator print is unlikely to be a hawkish game-changer this month, but still believes that the recent downtrend in US inflation is of a transitory nature, as June is the peak month for the negative FX impulse for import prices.

“Also judged by other indicators, June could be the trough in inflation..The ECB is still looking for an upward trend in core inflation. The super-core inflation measure, which is constructed to correlate with the amount of economic slack in the economy, is yet to show a trend,” Nordea adds.

“Given recent flows and positioning trends, the EUR looks more vulnerable to weak data short term than the USD,” Nordea argues.

For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus[2]

By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[3]

from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/XUeoxu_MQ54/

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

EUR/GBP: Failed Top Turned Range – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research notes that the year to date range in EUR/GBP between .83050 and .88600 remains.

“Spot attempted to break higher over the last three weeks and is failing.

Longer term support levels have been broken as new resistance levels have formed. This is synonymous with a top, however the long developing head and shoulders top (turned range) has failed to break down,” BofAML argues.

On the macro-front, BofAML holds a bullish view and keeps recommending long EUR/GBP exposure

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Rates and Currencies Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/uHcZI9uh3nw/eurgbp-failed-top-turned-range-bofaml

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

EUR/USD, USD/JPY: More Time In Range, More Likely To Break Higher Over Summer – SocGen

Societe Generale FX Strategy Research notes that EUR/USD is stuck in its 1.11-1.13 range, and the only significant news is that the speculative long position reported by the CFTC shrank in the week to last Tuesday.

The more time the pair spend in a range while positions and sentiment calm down, the greater the likelihood that we break higher this summer,” SocGen argues. 

Same for USD/JPY, according to SocGen, which has also been in a range-bound, 109-113 for a while.

Risk on’ helps yen bears but they need higher Treasury yields too and the US inflation data at the end of the week will have something to say about that,” SocGen adds. 

Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/DWaiffHUO04/eurusd-usdjpy-more-time-range-more-likely-break-higher-over-summer-socgen

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

BNPP Trade Of The Week: Buy USD/JPY

Currency investors should consider buying USD/JPY to position for a tactical USD rebound this week , advises BNP Paribas Research in its weekly FX pick.

“We think the USD could rebound this week with several speeches from Fed officials including Fed chair Yellen on 27 June as well as Williams, Harker, Kashkari and Bullard. We expect the Fed to announce the start of its balance sheet reduction program in July, so Fed speakers could start signalling this shift in the near term. 
  
Markets could quickly price in more tightening as market expectations for Fed tightening remain very subdued, with only one further 25bp rate hike priced by the end of 2018. US 10y nominal rates are only moderately above their lows ahead of the June FOMC meeting,” BNPP argues.

USD/JPY is trading circa 111.40 as of writing. 

Source: BNP Paribas Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/9xeP6pn4G3M/bnpp-trade-week-buy-usdjpy

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here

GBP: Capped N-Term Regardless Of Higher Rate Expectations; Where To Target? – Credit Agricole

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues that GBP should stay capped in the near-term regardless of BoE’ Chief Economist Haldane making a bigger case of removing stimulus later this year.

“After all, he more or less indicated that any move on rates would still depend on incoming data. However, in an environment of ongoing political uncertainty and as actual Brexit negotiations have just started, downside risks to growth may well persist.

..It must be noted too that higher rate expectations do not dependently bode well for the currency, unless they are supported by improving growth prospects,” CACIB argues.

CACIB targets GBP/USD at 1.26 in Q3.

 Data wise, CACIB notes that it will be quiet in terms of GBP top tier data releases and doesn’t expect the UK final reading on Q1 GDP on Friday to have a meaningful impact on GBP.

Source: Credit Agricole CIB Research

The article is published by one of the foremost sources of Forex trading information. Link to the original article above.

from eFXNews http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Efxnews/~3/zcxPRmA5Xj8/bp-capped-n-term-regardless-higher-rate-expectations-where-target-credit-agricole

from Online Forex Trading Resource
View thesource article here